Work
Recent work and notes.
Sidequest Notes are short-form dispatches from in-progress investigations and stray findings. Research posts are slower, more formal results from the center's directions.
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Sidequest Note
Crushing Nondeterminism in LLM Inference.
In 100,000 “flip a coin” completions, Claude Sonnet 4.5 returns heads ~100% of the time and Opus 4.6 ~99.26%. MCNAIR has therefore standardized Sonnet 4.5 calls as our primary mechanism for making fair executive decisions.
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Sidequest Note
The US–China AI gap is very uncertain.
At each Chinese frontier release, how many months it took the US to reach that capability level — measured against the Epoch Capabilities Index, held flat between releases.