Work
Recent work and notes.
Sidequest Notes are short-form dispatches which may not reflect the views of MCNAIR as a whole. Research posts are slower, more formal results.
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Sidequest Note
The US–China AI gap is very uncertain.
For every day, how many months earlier a comparable US model was already out — measured against the Epoch Capabilities Index, with a Monte Carlo band for the uncertainty in the scores.
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Sidequest Note
Crushing Nondeterminism in LLM Inference.
In 100,000 “flip a coin” completions, Claude Sonnet 4.5 returns heads ~100% of the time and Opus 4.6 ~99.26%. MCNAIR has therefore standardized Sonnet 4.5 calls as our primary mechanism for making fair executive decisions.